# Body FX: the money model, every assumption and every equation

Prepared by Team Empathy, September 2026. Currency: NZD throughout. Market: New Zealand only
(97.7% of Body FX's tracked revenue). This file exists so the maths in the strategy report can
be checked independently, by a person or by an AI. Every figure in the report's tables traces
to the chain below.

The model runs on one unit (non-branded organic clicks) and one measured value per click, with
a three-rung value ladder from Body FX's own Shopify customer cohort report. Branded demand and
branded revenue never enter it; they are stated separately at the end, unchanged.

## 1. The demand chain

| Step | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Measured basket demand | 13,840 searches/mo = 166,080/yr | 129 non-branded NZ keywords, each the median of Google Keyword Planner, SEMrush and DataForSEO (NZ database). No volume invented anywhere; a zero from a tool is treated as missing, not zero. |
| Long-tail factor | x 2.46 (a floor) | The full NZ keyword universe for 39 category stems, versus the basket's own terms, computed on one consistent volume scale (Ahrefs for both sides, so no scales are mixed). Universe 18,450/mo divided by basket-on-the-same-scale 7,510/mo = 2.46. Noise removed before summing: car-painting terms, art-supply terms, adult image intent, and costume-shop queries for cities where Body FX has no store. Both universe pulls hit their row caps (the sub-30/mo tail is missing) and the stems skip whole basket themes (wigs, airbrush, most pro brand lines), so 2.46 understates and is stated as a floor. |
| Total category | 408,557 searches/yr | 166,080 x 2.46 |
| Click survival | x 0.20 | About one search in five ends in an organic click on anyone's site; the rest go to ads, AI answers, image packs and zero-click. A deliberately conservative standard rate. |
| Winnable pool | 81,711 non-branded organic clicks/yr | 408,557 x 0.20 |

## 2. Today's capture: 23,150 clicks/yr = 28.3% of the pool

Measured from GA4 (12 months to 7 September 2026) by full landing-page classification:

- GA4 organic, all countries: 32,971 sessions, $57,453 revenue.
- Branded-navigational landings (an enumerable set: the homepage, (not set), /cart, /account,
  /password): 6,564 sessions, $23,987. These are people searching the brand name.
- Attribution leakage rows (checkout thank-you pages, indexed site-search pages): 12 sessions,
  $3,444. Excluded from both buckets.
- Everything else lands on a category, product or blog page, which is what a non-branded search
  does: 26,395 sessions, $30,021.
- Scaled to NZ-only organic (28,917 of 32,971 sessions): **23,150 non-branded sessions,
  $29,259 revenue.**

Two honest caveats, cutting opposite ways and left uncorrected because they are small and
partially offsetting: branded searches can land on deep pages via sitelinks (would overstate
non-branded), and some GA4 sessions come from adjacent everyday-makeup terms outside the
modelled category (would overstate capture of THIS market). GA4 sessions stand in for clicks
because no Search Console history exists for bodyfx.co.nz yet (the property was created
9 September 2026); sessions run slightly higher than clicks and the model is re-run on measured
Search Console clicks once they accrue.

Two alternate measurements are carried for honesty. A ratio-based GA4 method gives 20,520/yr
(25.1% of pool); an Ahrefs-modelled estimate gives 12,852/yr (15.7%). Both under-count by
construction (the first subtracts a branded share from a long tail that contains no branded
pages; the second sees only 263 keywords of a longer measured tail, September-dated in an
October-peaking category). The landing-page classification is primary because it is measured.

## 3. Value per click

- Measured: $29,259 / 23,150 sessions = **$1.26 per non-branded session** (GA4-tracked).
  Cross-check: non-branded conversion rate 1.95% x non-branded average order $64.73 = $1.26.
  (The conversion rate excludes 79 zero-dollar freebie "transactions" on a giveaway collection.)
- Capture scale: GA4 tracked $356,616 of online revenue in the same 12 months that Shopify's
  Online Store channel did $417,200, so GA4 sees about 85%. The per-session value is scaled by
  417,200 / 356,616 = **x 1.1699**, stated openly.
- **First-order value per click: $1.26 x 1.17 = $1.48.**

## 4. The value ladder (Shopify customer cohort report, cumulative amount spent per customer)

| Rung | Per customer | Ratio to first order | Per click | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First order | $82.30 | 1.00x | $1.48 | 2024 cohorts, month-0 average |
| First-year value | $108.70 | 1.321x | $1.95 | 2024 cohorts, cumulative at month 11 |
| Lifetime value (floor) | $177.10 | 2.203x | $3.26 | 2020 cohorts, cumulative at ~6 years, still climbing |

The lifetime rung is a floor at a roughly six-year horizon, read directly off the oldest
cohorts' cumulative spend. It is never derived from total sales divided by new customers (that
method overstates whenever acquisition has shrunk). The ladder assumes organically acquired
customers repeat like the all-channel cohorts; with 44.5% of orders from returning customers
and a professional/trade core that reorders steadily, that is the central assumption, named.

Customers per year = clicks x 1.95% conversion. At today's 23,150 clicks that is 452. Strictly
this counts transactions (a few will be existing customers making a fresh purchase); it is
labelled "new customers" because non-branded search is overwhelmingly new-buyer intent, and the
revenue columns are unaffected either way since they are clicks times value per click. Chart
values can differ from table cells by up to a dollar from rounding in the phase-in arithmetic.

## 5. The scenario table

Share of the winnable pool, times the pool, times value per click at each rung. No conversion
improvement is assumed anywhere: the conversion rate is held flat at today's measured 1.95%, so
any conversion gain sits on top of these figures.

| Case | Share | Clicks/yr | Customers/yr | First-order/yr | First-year/yr | Lifetime/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 28.3% | 23,150 | 452 | $34,230 | $45,210 | $75,400 |
| Conservative | 40% | 32,684 | 638 | $48,327 | $63,829 | $106,452 |
| Mid | 50% | 40,856 | 798 | $60,410 | $79,788 | $133,068 |
| High | 60% | 49,027 | 957 | $72,491 | $95,745 | $159,681 |

New value at the mid case, over today: +17,706 clicks/yr, +$26,180 first-order, +$34,578
first-year, +$57,668 lifetime.

**Each 1% of the pool = 817 clicks = about 16 customers = $1,208/yr first-order, $1,596/yr
first-year, $2,661/yr lifetime.** Share times the per-point value reproduces every cell to
within rounding.

Why shares this high are credible (shares above 25% normally demand investigation): today's
28.3% is measured, not modelled; the maximum keyword difficulty anywhere in the basket is 4/100;
Body FX holds the strongest specialist authority in the category (Ahrefs DR 26, with 92 of its
263 ranked keywords already top 3); the mid case asks for only 1.77x today's clicks; and even
the high case leaves 40% of the pool to Pinterest, YouTube, big-box retailers and publishers,
which is realistic in an image-led category.

## 6. The chart (three lines)

Each line is one ladder rung, priced at the acquisition pace reached at that month. Phase-in to
the mid case across 12 months (10% of the uplift live by month 3, 35% by month 6, 70% by month
9, 100% by month 12), then linear from mid to high across months 12 to 24. So month 0 equals
the Today row, month 12 equals the Mid row, month 24 equals the High row, on every rung.

## 7. October

October alone is 27.1% of the basket's annual searches (Keyword Planner monthly data, August
2025 to July 2026 window) and 21.9% of store revenue. Applied to the mid case, roughly $16,400
of the year's first-order value (about $36,100 at the lifetime rung) lands in the October
window. The spike is a one-month cliff: September runs about 30% above baseline, October
triples, November returns to baseline. Rankings and AI answers must be in place before
September to count.

## 8. Branded, stated separately

Branded demand runs at roughly 1,900 to 2,000 searches a month for the brand name, and
branded-navigational organic landings earned $23,987 of GA4-tracked revenue (6,564 sessions) in
the 12 months. That revenue sits on top of every number above, unchanged. No search strategy
grows a brand's own name, and it never enters the scenarios.

## 9. Deliberately left out (all upside, none counted)

- The AI prompt layer: a directional 157,000 to 193,000 prompts a year, 9 live AI Overviews on
  basket SERPs, and 773 measured AI referral sessions a year already arriving.
- Conversion improvement (held flat at 1.95% in every scenario, against a 3.91% store rate).
- The physical store's foot traffic and the trade draft-order revenue ($233,000 of the $652,000
  total sits outside the online store).
- The everyday-makeup crossover terms Body FX already ranks for, outside the modelled category.
- The general costume market, excluded from the universe on purpose.

## 10. Sources

Google Keyword Planner, SEMrush, DataForSEO (NZ, September 2026, median of three) for volumes.
Ahrefs (NZ, September 2026) for rankings, difficulty, AI Overview flags and the long-tail
universe. Body FX's own GA4 (12 months to 7 September 2026, NZ-filtered, bot-cleaned) and
Shopify (sales, channels, and the customer cohort report) for capture, value per click and the
ladder. Live AI answer checks, September 2026, for the citation evidence. All revenue figures
are directional, modelled from measured inputs, and the model is re-run on first-party Search
Console data as it accrues.